A Hypothetical Russian Military Operation Following Ukraine
Professor Carlo Masala, an expert in international politics at the Bundeswehr University Munich, has outlined a scenario in which Russia, following a limited victory in Ukraine, launches a military operation in 2028. This analysis, detailed in his book 'If Russia Wins', posits that Russia would control 20% of Ukrainian territory after a hypothetical peace deal known as the 'Geneva Peace'. In this projection, a new Russian president succeeding Vladimir Putin would execute a plan to seize the Estonian city of Narva, aiming to test the resolve of NATO's Article 5 collective defense clause. Such a scenario reflects growing Western concerns about the Kremlin's long-term ambitions beyond the current conflict.
Objectives of the Operation and NATO's Vulnerabilities
Masala states that the core objective of this Russian operation would be to probe NATO's unity and cohesion. He identifies several potential flashpoints where the alliance might be vulnerable, including:
- The Suwalki Gap
- Svalbard
- Gotland
- Border cities with Russian-speaking minorities
The scenario also mentions potential diversionary tactics, such as a migration crisis in Africa or heightened tensions in the South China Sea, which could distract NATO's attention from emerging threats in Europe.
Masala draws a historical parallel to Nazi Germany's remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936. Echoing these concerns, Bruno Kahl, former head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, stated in March 2025 that circles in Moscow are skeptical of NATO's Article 5 commitment and may seek to test it. Furthermore, in the summer of 2024, European intelligence agencies assessed that Russia could, within a few years, rebuild an army capable of attacking NATO countries. This underscores a critical period of military rebuilding and strategic calculation for the Kremlin.
Masala emphasizes that Russia's ultimate goal is the destruction of NATO and highlights the severe risks of a potential military confrontation. He questions whether the alliance would be willing to risk a major conflict to liberate a city of 50,000 inhabitants located near the Russian border. The scenario further notes that post-war Russia would possess a battle-hardened army, a capability no other European nation currently holds. Masala observes that Russia's shift to a war economy complicates any post-conflict return to civilian life and stresses the critical importance for Western leaders to fully understand the costs and consequences of long-term strategic commitments.
This hypothetical outline highlights the complex challenges to international security within a shifting geopolitical landscape. Threats from a resurgent Russia could have profound implications for NATO members, who must prepare for a new era of strategic challenges. Rising regional tensions and potential military actions may compel a thorough review of defense strategies and a strengthening of the alliance, which would, in turn, significantly impact the global political situation.