Geneva Negotiations
A new round of trilateral talks between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the United States, is scheduled to begin in Geneva on February 17. These talks are a rare instance of direct diplomatic engagement since the full-scale invasion began. Expectations for a breakthrough are low, as both sides appear firmly entrenched in their negotiating stances on core issues. The central topic will be the future of the Ukrainian territories currently occupied by Russia. The Russian delegation will operate under the so-called 'Anchorage Formula,' a framework approved by the Kremlin.
Delegation Composition and Expectations
The negotiations are taking place just before the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has noted that the U.S. has identified June as a deadline for reaching potential agreements. The Kremlin has officially acknowledged that territorial matters will be discussed, but according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia may put forward demands that extend beyond the territorial question.
The Ukrainian delegation has already arrived in Geneva. Its members include:
- Head of the President's Office, Kyrylo Budanov
- First Deputy Head of the President's Office, Serhiy Kyslytsia
- Head of the parliamentary faction 'Servant of the People,' David Arakhamia
- Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Vadym Skibitskyi
The meeting in Geneva, which will run on Tuesday and Wednesday, is not expected to yield any significant progress toward ending the war. The talks are anticipated to be difficult, with both sides holding firm to their positions. Western officials and analysts emphasize that Russian President Vladimir Putin believes time is on his side, calculating that Western support for Ukraine will wane, potentially leading to the collapse of Ukrainian resistance under sustained pressure.
Consequently, this new round of Geneva talks represents a critical step in exploring paths to a peaceful settlement, though its outcomes remain highly uncertain.
Given the rigid positions adopted by both parties, the prospect of reaching a compromise appears doubtful. The continuation of negotiations may signal an attempt to keep diplomatic channels open, but genuine progress will require substantial concessions from both sides.