How the war in Ukraine could end
In an analysis published by the Kyiv Post, international negotiator and founder of the Parley Policy Initiative, Michael MacArthur Bosak, examined possible conclusions to the conflict in Ukraine. He identified two plausible scenarios: a cessation of hostilities resulting from a unilateral withdrawal of Russian forces, or a compromise peace agreement reached through diplomatic talks. Bosak noted that Ukraine currently holds its strongest negotiating position since the fall of 2022, even though it lacks the capability to seize and hold new territory.
Every war ends in one of five ways:
- conquest
- formal surrender
- de facto surrender
- ceasefire
- negotiation
In this case, a full conquest or surrender of Ukraine is no longer feasible. Ukrainian forces regularly strike oil refineries and military targets deep within Russian territory. At the same time, despite its active operations, Ukraine is not in a strong position to capture and hold new areas.
'The war could last weeks, months, or years before either side concludes that continued fighting will no longer improve its position... The question now is how both sides will adapt their strategies to the shifting dynamics of power, both on the battlefield and, ultimately, at the negotiating table.' Michael MacArthur Bosak
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia's primary objective remains the complete takeover of Donbas and what he calls Novorossiya. He also claimed that the situation remains under control for the Russian Federation and that Ukraine is supposedly retreating along the entire front line. In this context, it is important to note that future developments will depend on how both sides respond to changes on the battlefield and in negotiations.
Bosak's breakdown of possible war endings underscores the complexity of Ukraine's position. On one hand, growing pressure on Russian military resources could push Moscow toward dialogue, but on the other, Russia's ambitions to seize new territory remain unchanged. Consequently, the next moves by both parties could significantly shape the conflict's trajectory and the prospects for a peaceful resolution.
As the situation evolves, the dynamics of the conflict become increasingly complex. Recent statements from Zelenskyy highlight missed opportunities for Russia to secure key regions, underscoring the challenges both sides face in achieving their objectives. Understanding these developments is crucial for grasping the potential outcomes of ongoing negotiations and military strategies.