Fuel Price Hike in January: An Expert's Explanation and Forecast
Serhii Kuyun, Director of the A-95 Consulting Group, forecasts an increase in fuel prices for Ukraine in January 2024. He attributes this to a combination of rising global oil prices and the weakening of the Ukrainian hryvnia. Kuyun explained that currency fluctuations have added about one hryvnia to fuel costs, while global price trends have contributed another one and a half hryvnia. He noted that the market is currently stable, but a price increase is likely if these conditions persist. This situation highlights the vulnerability of import-dependent economies to external market forces.
Current Fuel Price Status
As of January 14, 2024, the average retail prices in Ukraine are as follows:
- A-95 gasoline – 58.44 UAH/l;
- Diesel fuel – 58.29 UAH/l;
- Autogas (LPG) – 38.08 UAH/l.
The price of gasoline has already risen by 2 hryvnias per liter. The beginning of the year marked the third phase of an excise tax hike in Ukraine, which increased the duty on gasoline by 1.75 UAH/l, on diesel by 2.25 UAH/l, and on autogas by 1.5 UAH/l. However, the tax increase that took effect on January 1, 2026, did not cause an immediate price spike because December 2023 saw a drop in wholesale fuel procurement costs.
"Ukraine's fuel market continues to be influenced by external factors, which may lead to further price increases in the near future."
Serhii Kuyun, Director of the A-95 Consulting Group
This scenario underscores Ukraine's dependence on global energy prices and currency fluctuations, which directly impact household budgets and business operations. With rising excise duties and fuel costs, consumers face higher expenses, while businesses grapple with increased logistics expenditures. Monitoring market developments is therefore crucial to understanding the broader economic implications of these trends.