Outlook for Ukraine's Foreign Exchange Market
Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activity Department at Globe Bank, has provided a forecast for Ukraine's currency market for the period of April 6-12, outlining key influencing factors and expected exchange rate parameters. Lesovyi highlighted a significant rise in fuel prices in March as a potential influence on currency rates. Ukraine's currency market remains sensitive to both domestic price pressures and the level of central bank intervention.
In March, the price of A-95 gasoline rose by at least 30%, while diesel became 50% more expensive. According to the expert, this increase in fuel costs could become an additional factor impacting inflationary processes in the country. Furthermore, while the market required $600-800 million per week in calmer periods, the demand surged to $1-1.3 billion in March. At the same time, in December 2024, NBU (National Bank of Ukraine) interventions exceeded $5.7 billion, indicating the regulator's active role in supporting the foreign exchange market.
Projected Exchange Rates
The forecasted rates on the interbank market for the specified period are:
- 43.7-44.25 UAH per US dollar
- 49.5-52 UAH per euro
On the cash market, the following rates are expected:
- 43.5-44.5 UAH per dollar
- 50.5-52 UAH per euro
Daily rate fluctuations on the interbank market may vary within 0.05-0.15 UAH, at commercial banks—up to 0.1-0.2 UAH, and at exchange offices—up to 0.3 UAH.
The spread between buy and sell rates on the interbank market could reach up to:
- 0.15 UAH for the dollar
- 0.2 UAH for the euro
At commercial banks, this spread will be up to:
- 0.5-0.6 UAH for the dollar
- 0.8-1 UAH for the euro
At exchange offices, the spread may reach:
- 0.6-1 UAH for the dollar
- 1-1.3 UAH for the euro
Average weekly exchange rate deviations are forecast to be within 1-1.5% of the week's starting rate.
Consequently, Ukraine's currency market is expected to experience certain fluctuations from April 6 to 12, linked to economic indicators and changes in demand for foreign currency. Taras Lesovyi emphasizes the importance of monitoring the situation, as it could significantly impact the country's financial stability. The state of the foreign exchange market warrants close attention, as shifts in currency rates can directly influence inflationary trends and the overall economic situation in Ukraine.
As the currency market navigates through these fluctuations, understanding the recent decisions made by the National Bank of Ukraine becomes essential. The central bank's key rate adjustment could significantly influence exchange rates and market stability moving forward, especially in light of the current economic pressures faced by the country.