Politico's Forecast for 2026
The American publication Politico has published a forecast for 2026, noting that the world will experience a period of turbulence, and Donald Trump's efforts for a peaceful settlement of the war in Ukraine are rated at 4 to 1. It is pointed out that the chances of a successful conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine remain low, considering the Kremlin's unwillingness to make real concessions in negotiations.
The forecast also emphasizes that Russia is facing serious economic problems, such as a labor shortage and high rates. This may affect its ability to continue military actions, however, given Vladimir Putin's statements, the situation remains tense.
“If Kyiv is unwilling to settle the matter peacefully, Russia will solve all its tasks of the special military operation by armed means.” — Vladimir Putin
Additionally, it is projected that the public finances of major economies, such as the USA, France, and Britain, are under pressure from high debts. This may influence their foreign policy and support for Ukraine. In the 2026 midterm elections, a 'divided' government is expected in the USA, with the possibility of Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives.
Political Situation in Europe
In the context of European elections, Viktor Orban remains the favorite for the April 2026 elections with a probability of 2 to 1, while Benjamin Netanyahu has a 3 to 1 chance of retaining his position as prime minister. These factors may influence the political situation in the region and further negotiations regarding peace in Ukraine.
Politico's forecast highlights the complex international situation, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine and the political challenges facing key global economies. High levels of debt and political instability may significantly impact the foreign policy of states supporting Ukraine.
Tensions in relations between Russia and the West, as well as internal political challenges in Europe, may complicate the achievement of a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. Therefore, the further development of events will remain under the close watch of the global community.