Journalist Vitaliy Portnikov believes that Russia and the United States may try to offer Ukraine a model for ending the war similar to post-war Finland. This scenario involves neutrality, limitations in foreign policy, and a constant threat of new invasion. Portnikov stated during a broadcast on the channel 'Espreso'.
Portnikov Compared Possible Scenario for Ukraine with History of Finland
According to Vitaliy Portnikov, after the Winter War, the USSR could not fully conquer Finland due to the risk of great losses.
As a result, Joseph Stalin agreed to leave under control only part of the occupied territories, including Karelia and the Vyborg area.
Later, during World War II, Finland fought alongside Nazi Germany, and Finnish troops, along with Germans, were near Leningrad.
Portnikov noted that subsequently, the USSR and Great Britain agreed with Finland to withdraw troops to the borders after the Winter War and to maintain Finnish statehood under certain conditions.
Portnikov Suggested Possible Neutrality for Ukraine
In the journalist's opinion, Vladimir Putin may decide to temporarily postpone the attempt to destroy Ukrainian statehood, rather than completely abandon it.
In this case, Portnikov believes, Donald Trump and the Kremlin may promote a scenario for Ukraine that includes:
- withdrawing troops to 'comfortable' lines for Russia;
- refusing to join NATO;
- foreign policy neutrality;
- maintaining internal sovereign development.
At the same time, the journalist emphasized that even under such a scenario, Ukraine would remain at risk of a new war for decades.
Portnikov Reminded When the USSR Finally Gave Up Claims to Finland
The journalist cited a historical example that the Soviet Union finally renounced the idea of annexing Finland only in 1956.
It was then that the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR liquidated the Karelo-Finnish SSR and transformed it into an autonomous republic within Soviet Russia.
Portnikov described this as an unprecedented case in the history of the USSR, as a union republic was first downgraded to autonomy.
In the journalist's opinion, this example demonstrates how long Russia may maintain claims to neighboring states even after the active phase of war has ended.
It should be noted that the investigation of the Dossier Center revealed a document from the Russian presidential administration regarding a propaganda scenario to end the war in Ukraine.