Russia's military outlook and Putin's worsening dilemma
Herbert McMaster, who once served as White House national security adviser, has said Vladimir Putin must decide whether to authorize another draft that could pull in as many as 250,000 Russian citizens. Intelligence assessments cited by McMaster indicate the Kremlin is preparing to call up 300,000 to 500,000 people, likely after the State Duma elections held on September 21, with the call-up possibly beginning in early October.
McMaster also reported that Russian military contract recruitment in the first quarter of 2026 had fallen by about 20 percent compared with the previous year. Russian troop losses have now exceeded enlistment rates for several months, he said, worsening the military's position. He estimated that the mobilization wave of 2022 drove roughly one million people to leave Russia.
Internal constraints closing in on Putin
According to McMaster, Putin has eliminated the sole political party that opposed the war, which is adding to his domestic problems. He also said that former Russian satellites such as Kazakhstan and Armenia are becoming bolder in ignoring the Kremlin. McMaster warned about possible horizontal escalation by Putin, including a scenario in which Iran launches a strike against a NATO country like Bulgaria.
“Putin is sinking, and there are many signs of it. Right now he is facing a very difficult choice: he may have to mobilize another 250,000 Russians. If he does, you will see real cracks even among his most loyal supporters,”
Herbert McMaster
A second mobilization, he added, would take place amid a fuel crisis and record military losses.
McMaster’s comments highlight Russia’s growing military problems and the possible consequences for Kremlin domestic politics. If another draft goes ahead, social discontent and protest are likely to intensify among a population already exhausted by heavy losses and hardship. The situation could also reshape Russia’s relations with neighbors and partners, deepening its international isolation. These warnings add to broader Western concerns about Moscow’s next moves.
As the Kremlin grapples with the potential consequences of a new draft, the situation continues to evolve. Reports indicate that Moscow is considering enlisting an additional 250,000 soldiers, a move that could further strain Putin's already fragile political standing. Understanding these developments is crucial as they may have significant implications for both domestic and international stability.