Conditions for territory exchange with Russia
Recent analyses by ISW have shown that the transfer of territories in Donetsk and Luhansk regions by Russia could help avoid a major war for cities in Donbas and ceasefire. This 'buffer zone' has been an obstacle to the Kremlin's ambitions for 11 years.
This buffer consists of four major cities in the north and several towns in the southern part, where Ukrainian forces defended against pro-Western separatists. This forced Russia to develop a strategy for capturing this territory.
Analysts emphasize that if these territories are handed over, it could allow Russian forces to continue advancing towards the borders of Dnipropetrovsk region, where the defensive line is not as reliable as in Donbas.
Furthermore, it is noted that without reliable monitoring mechanisms and security guarantees for Ukraine, the agreement could pose a risk of renewed war.
The message examines the conditions for territory exchange with Russia that could lead to the cessation of conflict in Donbas and the risk of renewed war in case of non-compliance with the agreement.