Transitions to the OCU will occur gradually
Only 10-20% of the existing parishes and dioceses of the Moscow church will begin to re-register their charters or transition to the OCU. At the same time, the majority will litigate and prolong the process of separation from the UOC MP. This was stated in an interview with 'Glavkom' by religious scholar, Doctor of Philosophy Alexander Brodetsky.
The religious scholar notes that it should not be expected that as soon as the state service for ethnic politics and freedom of conscience starts issuing prescriptions, the re-registration of the charters of UOC MP parishes or the transitions of communities to the OCU will happen very quickly. 'I think some actions will be initiated, conditionally, by 10-20% of the parishes and dioceses currently existing in the UOC MP. Others will litigate, drag things out, while simultaneously continuing their religious life – attending services in current churches or renting some houses and adapting them for churches. And this will continue, in my estimate, for five, even ten years,' he says.
The role of global Orthodox churches in the recognition of the OCU
The religious scholar believes that a serious factor that could significantly change the situation will be the recognition of the OCU by some other global Orthodox churches. The Moscow church claims that no one in the world recognizes the OCU.
'The Serbian church will definitely not do this, because its patriarch spoke with Putin in April, calling him the 'trump card of Orthodoxy' and guardian of values. The Jerusalem church is likely not to do this either, as it is completely funded by Moscow. The Bulgarian church – definitely not, with its current fairly young patriarch. It is quite possible that the Albanian church will become the fifth to recognize the OCU, as it is removed from political processes. As for the Polish church – anything is possible,' the specialist explains.
The religious scholar emphasizes that the Romanian church plays an important role in the issue of recognizing the OCU. According to him, Romanian Orthodoxy is quantitatively the largest after Ukrainian, which has not yet recognized the OCU.
The gradual transition of parishes and dioceses to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine will take longer than expected. The religious expert predicts that only a small part will be ready for registration or transition, while others will pursue the judicial path and continue their religious life for the time being. Furthermore, the recognition of the OCU by other global Orthodox churches could significantly impact the situation in Ukraine, although the Moscow church does not support this. The Serbian, Jerusalem, and Bulgarian churches are unlikely to recognize the OCU, however, it is possible that the Romanian or Polish churches will make a corresponding decision.