Moscow’s command over Belarusian forces
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, has stated that Russia now controls the Belarusian army and is using joint nuclear exercises as a tool to pressure the European Union. According to Kovalenko, Belarusian armed forces began military drills on May 18 involving the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in field conditions. These maneuvers are being conducted in close coordination with the military leadership of the Russian Federation.
Kovalenko added that the Kremlin is distorting reality by framing its actions as a necessary defensive response to external threats.
“At the same time, Russia twists reality to make it seem like this is a forced act of self-defense. They are trying to recast themselves from aggressor into victim, and they do this across the board,” – Andriy Kovalenko.He also emphasized that this propaganda campaign has little impact on Ukrainian society.
Potential fallout from these moves
Despite the ongoing drills, no movement of personnel or military equipment has been detected near Ukraine’s state border on Belarusian territory. Still, the potential threat from Belarus remains very real. Belarus’s self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, and Russia’s dictator, Vladimir Putin, continue to sustain this partnership.
Kovalenko outlined three major consequences that could result from these actions:
- spreading fear within EU countries,
- eroding support for current political elites in the EU,
- boosting the ratings of political forces that advocate friendlier ties with Russia.
These factors could significantly reshape Europe’s political landscape amid rising tensions on the continent’s eastern flank.
Kovalenko’s remarks reflect heightened alarm in Ukraine and among its Western partners over possible threats emanating from Belarus. In the context of global political strain, these exercises may be seen as an element of hybrid warfare, jeopardizing regional stability. Monitoring developments in Belarus could become a key indicator of Russia’s and its allies’ future behavior toward Europe.
As the situation evolves, the ongoing military exercises in Belarus underline the persistent threats along the border, raising concerns among neighboring countries. For a deeper understanding of the implications these drills may have on regional security and Ukraine's response, read more about the border threats indicated by Kyiv.