Prospects for ending the war in Ukraine
Russia may stop the war in 2026 if certain conditions are met, particularly the satisfaction of the main demands of President Vladimir Putin. The socio-political situation in the country indicates significant pressure from the population, the majority of whom seek to end the conflict. According to polls, 62-63% of Russians are a passive majority in favor of stopping the war. Only 22-24% support the continuation of military actions until the complete destruction of Ukraine, and 15% refuse to answer sociologists' questions.
The economic situation in Russia, according to forecasts, is expected to continue deteriorating until 2026. This may become an additional factor that compels Putin to negotiate. Elections to the State Duma are scheduled for 2026, and given that previous elections in 2025 did not demonstrate the expected updates in the parliamentary corps, political stability may be at risk, which will also affect the willingness to achieve peace.
Main reasons and conditions for peace
The main reasons for the war remain Russia's desire to return to the world agenda, avoid political dependence on China, raise stakes through threats to Europe, as well as to take Donbas and change the government in Ukraine. Certain conditions are necessary for peace, among which are:
- Pressure from China or the USA;
- Satisfaction of Putin's main demands.
These factors may prompt negotiations and an end to the conflict, which, according to forecasts, could happen in 2026.
Ending the war in Ukraine remains a complex process dependent on many internal and external factors. It is important to note that socio-economic pressure on Russia may become a key element in changing the Kremlin's policy. Given the upcoming elections, growing discontent in society may compel the country's leadership to seek a way out of the conflict to maintain stability and legitimacy of power. At the same time, the role of international actors such as China and the USA may significantly influence the course of events and the prospects for peace in the region.