Russia's Military and Economic Challenges
Russia is encountering severe military and economic difficulties in its war against Ukraine, which are hindering its ability to expand its armed forces. In Foreign Affairs, analyst Michael Kofman highlights that at the current pace of offensive operations, the Russian army cannot effectively grow its troop numbers. This is due to staggering losses, which by December 2025 are projected to exceed the monthly recruitment of 30,000–35,000 new personnel. The ongoing conflict has evolved into a brutal war of attrition, testing the limits of Russia's military-industrial capacity.
Kofman notes that Moscow is now allocating 40% of its state budget to the military and the war, jeopardizing the nation's economic stability. Russia faces economic stagnation, a growing deficit, regional budget crises, and low oil prices that are undercutting revenues from this vital resource. In light of these challenges, Moscow is spending nearly eight percent of its GDP on military needs, a level of expenditure that is difficult to sustain long-term.
Implications for Domestic Politics
Kofman further argues there is a 'fundamental mismatch between the military means Russia possesses and the political ends it seeks.' He observes that President Putin's gambits have misfired, as sustained pressure and attrition have not collapsed Ukrainian lines, and Russian diplomacy has failed to turn the United States against Ukraine. Kofman emphasizes that while Ukraine faces its own challenges, time is increasingly not on Russia's side, however much Moscow may try to portray the situation otherwise.
This situation indicates that for Russia, the continuation of the war may become not just a military but also an economic burden. The high costs of maintaining the army amid economic instability could lead to serious consequences for the country's domestic politics.
Michael Kofman, Foreign Affairs
Simultaneously, the conflict's protracted nature and mounting losses point to the potential for a shift in Moscow's strategic approach, which could influence the future course of events in the region.