Conversation between George Friedman and Ridvan Bari Urkosta
On September 15, 2026, a detailed discussion took place on YouTube featuring George Friedman, head of Geopolitical Futures, and analyst Ridvan Bari Urkosta. Their dialogue focused on Russia’s current condition, Polish foreign policy, shifts in Eastern Europe’s geopolitical landscape, and a reevaluation of what the West represents today. The conversation was released publicly on October 8, 2026.
During the exchange, Friedman emphasized that
“Russia is no longer the power it once was”, highlighting Russia’s failure to conquer Ukraine after five years of conflict. He also pointed out Russia’s declining influence across East Asia, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus, describing it as
“the weakest military force in Europe since World War I.”According to Friedman, the traditional view of Russia as a dominant great power is outdated and no longer matches reality.
The State of Russia-Poland Relations
Ridvan Bari Urkosta drew attention to the persistent stagnation in ties between Russia and Poland. He noted a rare consensus among Poland’s main political parties, PiS and PO, to avoid improving relations with Russia. Meanwhile, the parties Konfederacja and Korona are viewed within Poland’s political scene as a kind of 'fifth column.'
The discussion also explored the position of Western Europe. Friedman remarked that after 1945, Western Europe lost its dominant global system. However, he suggested that the region now has an opportunity to build a new geopolitical framework, especially as Eastern Europe is actively shaping its own order. At the same time, Friedman warned that U.S. involvement in European affairs is diminishing, and European nations currently lack a unified strategy for the region.
In closing, Friedman expressed uncertainty about the future identity of the West, stating:
“I no longer know what the West is.”Despite this, both experts acknowledged the educated populations and their aspirations for improved well-being. They also noted that although tensions persist among countries, there is little appetite for conflict, and the post-Cold War environment shows signs of gradual improvement.
This exchange between Friedman and Urkosta highlights significant transformations within Eastern Europe’s geopolitical landscape, particularly Russia’s reduced influence alongside the growing autonomy of regional states. By examining topics like Polish politics and relations with Russia, the conversation underscores the complexity of today’s international relations and the urgent need for countries to adapt amid evolving global dynamics. For an English-speaking audience, understanding these developments is crucial, as they have broad implications for security and diplomacy in Europe and beyond.
As the geopolitical landscape shifts, the ongoing internal challenges in Russia have raised questions about its military capabilities. While the nation strives to maintain its nuclear status amidst sanctions, its military strength continues to face significant scrutiny. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for grasping the broader implications for Eastern Europe and beyond.