Syria’s Energy Landscape After 2024
Russia has emerged as Syria’s primary oil supplier following the 2024 ousting of the Assad regime. By 2026, Russian crude exports to the country had jumped 75%, reaching 60,000 barrels per day. This spike comes after Iran—once Syria’s main source of oil—stopped deliveries in the wake of Assad’s fall and the breakdown of talks between Syria’s new leadership and Turkey.
Syria is grappling with a severe energy shortage, requiring 120,000 to 150,000 barrels daily to meet demand. Domestic production stands at just 35,000 barrels per day—a tenfold drop from pre-war levels. The country’s largest field, al-Omar, yields only 5,000 barrels per day, highlighting the critical challenge of powering homes and industry.
Supply Risks and Dependency
Russian oil is transported to Syria using tankers already under Western sanctions. This arrangement raises red flags, as analyst Karam Shaara warns:
“Total reliance on sanctioned Russian oil could leave Syria’s entire energy sector vulnerable to international restrictions once again.”
Russia maintains two military bases in Syria, underscoring its strategic foothold in the region. Meanwhile, the recent restoration of diplomatic ties between Ukraine and Syria could shift the dynamics. Despite the hardships, illegal shipments of Ukrainian grain on Russian vessels have continued, reflecting the ongoing complexity of the humanitarian crisis.
Syria’s dependence on Russian oil highlights its fragility amid an energy crisis. With no alternative sources in sight, the unmet energy needs of the population risk worsening the humanitarian situation. How Syria navigates its relationships with the international community will be key to shaping its energy policy and regional stability going forward.
The current surge in Russian oil supplies to Syria comes amid a backdrop of significant challenges for the energy sector, particularly as drone strikes have severely impacted Russian oil production. This situation adds another layer of complexity to Syria's energy crisis, as the country struggles to secure stable and sufficient energy resources for its population.