Shifting Dynamics in the War in Ukraine
Richard Fontaine, head of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), has assessed the latest developments in the war in Ukraine. He notes that for the first time in nearly three years, Russia is losing more territory than it is capturing. The momentum on the battlefield is shifting in Ukraine’s favor, according to Fontaine, signaling a major change in the conflict's trajectory. He also points out that Moscow has now been at war longer than it was during World War II.
Fontaine reports that Russia has suffered approximately 500,000 military fatalities, and its battlefield position has been further complicated by the loss of access to Starlink in February. Meanwhile, Ukraine is significantly strengthening its military capabilities through European assistance and its own defense industry, mass-producing drones and missiles. The current frontline situation indicates that Ukrainian forces are regularly striking deep inside Russian territory.
Potential Escalation Ahead
Despite these positive shifts for Ukraine, Fontaine warns of a potential escalation in the conflict.
“When the Russians can’t solve a problem, they tend to expand it. And that means escalation,”he stated. According to him, many more battles lie ahead, potentially extending into 2027.
“The United States is not a neutral arbiter in this war. It must help Ukraine survive to the end—and win,”Fontaine added.
Fontaine also emphasizes that both sides have stopped relying on the U.S. as a decisive force. President Zelensky is now primarily turning to Europe for support, while Putin’s bet that Trump would force Ukraine into a deal has not paid off. Russia now finds itself in international isolation, which has pushed it into a partnership with North Korea. At the same time, Moscow faces a real shortage of personnel, with losses outpacing the rate of replacement.
The war in Ukraine is undergoing significant changes, and these developments could lead either to peace or to further escalation. Fontaine, however, considers the latter scenario more likely.
“And all of this to subjugate Ukraine, which never posed a threat to Russia from the start,”he concluded, highlighting the absurdity of the aggressor’s objectives. The situation remains tense, with a sharp increase in the number of bombs falling on Kyiv and incidents of munitions landing in Romania. Russian nuclear forces are conducting drills, and Russian satellites are maneuvering, signaling a risk that the war could extend into space.
The shifting frontline dynamics point to a gradual improvement in Ukraine’s position, but the possibility of escalation remains significant. Fontaine’s forecasts suggest that despite military gains, Ukraine must prepare for a prolonged conflict. Relations with international partners, particularly Europe, are becoming increasingly critical for sustaining Ukraine’s resilience in this war.
As the situation evolves on the battlefield, the prospect of a ceasefire has become increasingly plausible. This shift raises important questions about the future of the conflict and the potential for diplomatic solutions. For a deeper analysis of how recent developments might pave the way for negotiations, explore our article on the viability of a ceasefire in Ukraine.