Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Report for 2026
According to a 2026 report from the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia has dramatically scaled up its domestic production of munitions while also importing significant quantities from other nations. Since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Federation's munitions output has increased by a factor of seventeen. Russian factories produced over 7 million artillery shells, mortar rounds, and rockets in 2025, a substantial rise from the 4.5 million units manufactured in 2024.
Furthermore, from 2023 onward, Russia has received between 5 and 7 million artillery shells from Iran and North Korea. This assessment provides crucial insight into the evolving industrial capacity behind Russia's war effort. Despite this significant transformation in its military-industrial complex, the Estonian intelligence report states that Russia does not currently intend to attack NATO member states in the immediate future.
Assessment of Russian Attack Risk Against NATO Countries
Estonian intelligence has evaluated the risk of a Russian assault on NATO countries. They assess the likelihood of such an action remains low, as Estonia and Europe have taken measures that compel the Kremlin to carefully weigh its potential moves.
"We are likely to reach a similar assessment next year" - Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
This report reflects new realities within the context of the military conflict in Ukraine and global security. The growth in Russia's munitions production, coupled with imports from other nations, underscores the Kremlin's persistent efforts to bolster its military capabilities. However, the assessed risk of an attack on NATO countries remains low, suggesting that despite increased military resources, Russia is approaching potential aggression against Western states with caution.