Assessing the Likelihood of a Russian Military Collapse
In a piece for The Bulwark, author Brynn Tannehill examines whether the Russian army is on the verge of collapse by drawing parallels to historical cases where major forces suddenly fell apart. She highlights four key examples:
- Tsarist Russia in 1917
- Germany in 1918
- The Japanese army in Burma in 1944
- South Vietnam in 1975
Tannehill argues that Russia's military today exhibits the same warning signs seen before those collapses: poor leadership, failed logistics, widespread corruption, troop exhaustion, and crumbling morale.
Key Factors Driving a Potential Breakdown
Among the main drivers of a possible collapse, the author points to logistics—now working against Moscow thanks to actions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukrainian FPV drones are striking military transport up to 150 kilometers from the front line, severely hindering Russian supply chains. Tannehill notes that Russia’s spring offensive in 2026, in her view, has
“run out of steam”.
Kyiv has stated that its frontline goal is not territorial gain but inflicting more casualties than Russia can replace. The article also mentions strikes on energy infrastructure, attacks near Moscow and St. Petersburg during an economic forum, and targeted operations against Russian generals. The author underscores that
“the best guarantee of bad Russian leadership remains Vladimir Putin’s health”.
Tannehill’s analysis sheds light on critical factors that could shape the trajectory of the war in Ukraine and Russia. Understanding why the Russian army might collapse is essential for assessing the battlefield situation. Issues like logistical failures and declining morale could significantly alter the conflict’s course and the strategies of both sides, making these trends worth monitoring closely.
As the situation continues to evolve, understanding the technological advantages that Ukraine has developed is crucial. Recent reports indicate that Ukraine's advancements in technology are playing a significant role in the ongoing conflict, potentially shifting the balance of power on the battlefield. These developments, coupled with the challenges faced by the Russian military, may further impact the dynamics of the war.