Stagnation of the Russian Economy
The Russian economy has been officially recognized by the Kremlin as having lost momentum and entered stagnation. Projections indicate a potential deep degradation of the economic situation by 2042. This is the result of a slowdown in the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which indicates serious economic difficulties.
According to official data, GDP is predicted to decline by 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024, and in subsequent periods, growth is expected to be:
- 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025,
- 1.1% in the second quarter,
- 0.6% in the third quarter.
Such indicators suggest that the country's economy has not only lost momentum but also has every chance of prolonged stagnation.
Moreover, oil and gas revenues are expected to decrease by 43% compared to the level of 2019, which may further complicate the financial situation in the country. Amid economic difficulties, on December 20, 2023, a significant rise in discontent among workers in the Russian Federation was recorded. The number of citizen appeals to government authorities reached over 70 thousand before the beginning of December, which is one and a half times higher than last year's figures.
This is just the beginning of a long period of losses, and Russians will have to 'tighten their belts' at least until 2042.
— representatives of the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service
Impact on Society
The situation in the Russian economy reflects the complex internal and external challenges the country faces. Economic stagnation and declining oil and gas revenues, which are the main source of budget financing, may have serious consequences for socio-economic stability. The growing discontent among the population may lead to social protests and political changes, which in turn will affect the further development of events in the country.