The discount on Russian Urals oil has skyrocketed due to US sanctions against the two largest oil companies in Russia - 'Rosneft' and 'Lukoil'. Indian and Chinese buyers are massively refusing Russian oil, while Russia's shadow fleet consists of about 940 vessels and is becoming a target for new Western sanctions.
Discounts on Russian Urals oil in the ports of Primorsk and Novorossiysk reached $19.4 per barrel as of November 10, which is a record figure. At the beginning of November, the discount was around $13-14 per barrel, while before the introduction of American sanctions in October, it was $11-12.
The US Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions against 'Rosneft' and 'Lukoil' on October 22, 2025. The sanctions also extended to the subsidiaries of these oil giants. The US Treasury Secretary stated that this step was taken in connection with President Putin's refusal to end the war.
Five major Indian refineries did not place orders for Russian oil for December, and in China, large state-owned companies refused to purchase Russian oil. These countries are the main importers of Russian oil, and their refusal can significantly impact the Russian economy.
EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius warned that Russia's 'shadow fleet' poses a wide range of threats to Europe. The possibility of drones being launched from tankers and the risk of ecological disasters are just some of the potential consequences.
The international community has taken steps to restrict the activities of the Russian shadow fleet. The US, UK, EU, and Canada have imposed sanctions on ships used to transport Russian oil, creating an overall threat to security and stability.
Experts predict that the main restructuring of sales schemes through traders and circumvention of sanctions will be completed by the beginning of 2026. The expansion of discounts may be temporary, but in a few months, they may return to previous levels.
Throughout the entire period of oil export from February 2022 to February 2025, Russia earned about $585 billion.
The increase in the discount on Russian Urals oil due to US sanctions against 'Rosneft' and 'Lukoil' has led to significant problems for Russian exports. India and China have already refused to purchase Russian oil, which may have serious implications for the economy of the country. The international community has taken measures to limit the activities of the Russian shadow fleet, which adds additional complications to the situation. It is forecasted that the oil market may experience an unstable period, but it is possible that prices and trading conditions will return to previous levels by the end of 2025 or early 2026.