In the event of signing a peace agreement, most Ukrainians currently living in Poland do not plan to return home. A survey by the National Bank of Poland showed that over 50% of pre-war immigrants want to stay in the country permanently, while among refugees this intention is only 24%. This is reported by inPoland.
The Intention to Stay in Poland: Who and Why
Data from the NBP indicates that even a peace treaty will not change the life decisions of most Ukrainians. More than half of those who arrived in Poland before the full-scale war consider the country their new home. Among refugees, a significant portion—56%—cannot determine their future plans. An important factor is knowledge of the Polish language:
- Among pre-war immigrants, 55% of those who speak the language well want to stay;
- Among people with lower levels of language proficiency, the indicator is half as low;
- Among refugees, the dependence is similar—from 14% to 34%.
Ukrainians living in large cities or regional centers are more likely to see their future in Poland. Among pre-war immigrants, 54% in megacities plan to stay, compared to 44% in smaller localities. Men with children or complete families also demonstrate a higher willingness to settle in Poland permanently.
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Factors Affecting Ukrainians' Decisions
For Ukrainians, the main motivators to stay in Poland are:
- Stable income—44% rated it as a key factor;
- Suitable job—38% of respondents answered this way;
- The ability to combine life in two countries—some respondents consider this option;
- 4% plan to bring their family from Ukraine.
Employment expert Vitaliy Serhiyovych Belenets notes:
«The Polish labor market has become predictable and stable for Ukrainians over these years. People received what they often did not have at home during the war: confidence in tomorrow. If Ukrainians have already integrated, have jobs and housing, returning becomes less likely. Even after peace, many will prefer a life model between two countries or will permanently stay in Poland.»
The survey also recorded a significant level of uncertainty: over a third of pre-war immigrants and more than half of refugees do not know how their decisions will change after peace. However, most have already integrated, have stable jobs, and do not plan drastic changes in case of the war's end.
Previously, we wrote that Poland is changing the status of refugees from Ukraine: what awaits a million people.