Washington Intensifies Pressure on Havana
The Geopolitical Futures podcast examines the United States' escalating pressure on Cuba following Donald Trump's return to the White House. The U.S. Department of Justice has announced it will bring charges against 94-year-old Cuban President Raúl Castro. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recorded a video message directed at the Cuban people, while the CIA director paid a visit to Havana. George Friedman explains that Cuba's threat does not stem from the island itself, but from the possibility of foreign powers exploiting its geographic position—just 90 miles (roughly 145 km) off the coast of Florida.
The Monroe Doctrine, shaped in large part with Cuba in mind, has deep historical roots in U.S. policy. At one point, the United States even offered to purchase Cuba from Spain, but the offer was rejected. The Spanish-American War was fought largely over Cuba, during which Theodore Roosevelt led the charge up San Juan Hill. After that conflict, Cuba became one of America's key acquisitions. In U.S. history, only once has the country waged war on Cuba—under Roosevelt—and the Bay of Pigs invasion ended in failure. It is noted that at least half of all U.S. imports and exports pass through the Gulf of Mexico.
Cuba and External Threats
Cuba has deep ties with drug cartels, and the Cuban military generates substantial revenue from these connections. At the same time, sources indicate that the Cuban army is the only major institution capable of propping up the regime, though it may lack the strength to stand up to the United States.
'Cuba is not dangerous in itself, but only in the hands of others.'
— George Friedman
This highlights that 'the threat to the United States comes less from Cuba itself than from the possibility that foreign nations could use Cuba.' Friedman added, 'As long as Cuba is hostile to the U.S. on its own, it poses no threat. But if it opens itself to a foreign occupier—that changes everything.' He noted that this scenario should be viewed in the context of a potential threat from China, should Beijing decide to station troops or missile systems on the island. Friedman's position is that 'the issue is not so much the threat Cuba poses, but its weakness and the risk of occupation.'
The United States is likely to focus on triggering an economic collapse of the regime rather than launching a direct invasion. This underscores that 'this is not something imposed by the United States. It is the result of the regime's own behavior.' In light of these developments, there is growing interest in how Cuba fits into the Western Hemisphere strategy and why those 90 miles between Cuba and the U.S. matter so much.
The mounting U.S. pressure on Cuba may signal a shift in Washington's foreign policy approach in the region, particularly amid rising tensions with China. Cuba, historically a focal point of American attention, could become a key piece in the broader global geopolitical contest. Monitoring developments on the island may offer critical clues about the future of U.S.-Cuba relations and their impact on regional security.
As tensions continue to rise, the U.S. government is not only preparing legal actions against Raúl Castro but also considering broader strategies to address the situation in Cuba. The recent increase in sanctions and military options reflects a significant shift in American foreign policy that could have lasting implications for the region and beyond.