Understanding the Causes Behind Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
In a recent discussion between Michael Kimmidge, director of the Kennan Institute, and former CIA analyst Stidman Hinkley, the factors leading up to Russia’s large-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 are examined in depth. Hinkley, who specialized in Russian and Ukrainian affairs and served in U.S. government intelligence until 2023, offers a detailed analysis of the strategic considerations influencing Vladimir Putin’s decisions.
Major Drivers of Russia’s Aggressive Stance
Hinkley highlights significant transformations within Putin’s inner circle and his evolving view of key events in Russian-Ukrainian relations from 2000 up to the onset of war. Notably, since around 2020, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, Putin spent more time away from Moscow. During this period, Mikhail Kovalchuk, a close associate of Putin, adopted strong positions regarding Ukraine. Hinkley points out that Putin regarded the Eurasian Economic Union as his primary foreign policy initiative, which partly fueled his confrontational approach toward Ukraine.
Looking back at pivotal moments, Hinkley underscores that in 2013, then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych pursued an association agreement with the European Union—an act Putin perceived as threatening to the Eurasian Union. According to Hinkley, Putin consistently believed that Ukraine could not simultaneously belong to both the Eurasian Economic Union and the EU, heightening his concerns about Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. Putin’s rise to power began in 2000 when he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as Russia’s president, and by 2007, he openly criticized the United States at the Munich Security Conference.
- Hinkley recalls the 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia.
- At the NATO Bucharest Summit, Georgia and Ukraine were denied Membership Action Plans.
- Putin asserted that Crimea is Russian territory and vowed to reclaim it if NATO admitted Ukraine or Georgia.
In Hinkley’s view, by mid-2021, just before the invasion, Putin believed the United States was behind many regional developments. He also cites the passage of a British destroyer through waters near Crimea, which angered Putin, alongside the Sea Breeze military exercises in the Black Sea occurring ahead of the 2022 invasion.
Hinkley: “If it seems like I’m echoing Kremlin narratives, criticizing U.S. policy, or defending Putin’s views, please feel free to ask me to clarify my position.”
This interview sheds light on the intricate history and complex dynamics that shape Russian-Ukrainian relations, emphasizing the importance of historical context in grasping current events.
Hinkley’s insight, drawn from his access to internal government processes, provides a valuable perspective on Russia’s aggressive policies. Factors such as changes within Putin’s circle, the impact of the pandemic, and historical milestones offer a clearer understanding of the conflict’s origins. This analysis is a useful resource for scholars and policymakers focused on international relations and regional security.