Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum: immediate 50% tariffs on any country supplying weapons or technologies to Iran. Formally, the threat concerns a wide range of Tehran's allies (including the RF and the DPRK), but in fact, this is a direct blow to Beijing, as the unchallenged donor of the anti-Western military-industrial bloc.
Why the Target is China, Not Moscow or Pyongyang
Why does Trump ignore Moscow and Pyongyang while aiming at China? The reason lies in production mathematics. Russia is currently operating at the limits of its own frontline needs and is a net importer of arms. The DPRK has stockpiles of basic ammunition but lacks technological sovereignty. All microelectronics, machines, drone matrices, and components for Iranian ballistic missiles are based on Chinese supply chains. Trump pragmatically strikes at the 'manufacturer', understanding that without Chinese components, the defense industry of Russia, Iran, and the DPRK will be paralyzed.
Rare Earth Response: Beijing's Asymmetry
However, this ultimatum is classic geopolitical poker with maximal stakes. Implementing 50% tariffs will critically strike at China’s export model. But Beijing has an asymmetric answer—a complete blockade of rare earth metal (REM) exports. China controls over 85% of the world's processing capacity for these materials. Without this base, the US defense industry will hit a wall: the production of F-35 fighters, radars, precision missiles, and satellites will come to a halt within a few months. America will not be able to build an independent recycling cycle for at least 3-5 years.
If the Bluff Fails: Mutual Economic Destruction
What will happen if Beijing ignores Washington's bluff? A scenario of mutual guaranteed economic destruction will unfold. The US will face a severe raw material shortage and paralysis of its defense industry amid a global crisis, while China will encounter an export collapse, corporate bankruptcies, and internal social instability.
Why This is a 'Bluff', But a Working One
That is why Trump's ultimatum is a bluff, but a working one. Neither Washington nor Beijing is physically ready to pull the trigger. The actual task of the White House is to use the threat of collapse to compel China to an off-the-record deal. Washington needs China to quietly cut off oxygen to the Iranian defense industry ahead of negotiations in Islamabad, leaving Tehran without resistance resources. In exchange for this, tariffs will remain just records on Twitter. Iran in this game acts not as a subject but purely as a bargaining chip in the bargaining of two real superpowers.