Lessons from Turkey for Ukraine
Turkey offers valuable but hazardous lessons for Ukraine, according to experts. While the country has built a strong industrial base, export sector, tourism industry, logistics network, and defense technology capabilities, its monetary policy has created serious economic challenges, including an inflation-devaluation trap. This makes Turkey a useful case study rather than a blueprint to follow.
By spring 2026, Turkey was a member of the G20 and OECD economies. In 2025, its GDP grew by approximately 3.6%. However, annual inflation in Turkey reached 32.37% in April 2026. The Central Bank of Turkey maintains a weekly repo rate of 37%, with an overnight rate corridor ranging between 35.5% and 40%. These figures highlight the country's ongoing economic pressures.
Turkey's Economic Struggles
Turkey also faces a current account deficit, which hit $9.67 billion in March 2026, with an annual shortfall of roughly $39.7 billion. Over the past decade, Turkey's average annual economic growth has been around 4.9%. In 2025, the country earned $65.23 billion from tourism, welcoming over 63.9 million visitors. Meanwhile, its defense and aerospace exports reached $10.56 billion in 2025.
According to Bohdan Danylyshyn, Turkey proves that industrial policy works when it targets specific sectors, production clusters, export goals, infrastructure, R&D, and government procurement.
Danylyshyn emphasizes that Ukraine should not adopt the 'Turkish monetary model' but rather the 'Turkish scale of economic ambition'—without repeating its monetary policy mistakes. He identifies years of political interference in monetary policy as Turkey's main error. He stresses the importance of keeping Ukraine's National Bank independent, calling it a cornerstone of national economic security.
Danylyshyn also warns Ukraine against politicizing its central bank, substituting trust with administrative controls, or fueling growth through inflationary credit.
Turkey's experience shows that economic success can come with significant risks, especially in monetary policy. This underscores the need for Ukraine to forge its own economic path, tailored to its domestic conditions and needs. The lessons drawn from Turkey's journey can help shape an effective economic strategy that avoids the pitfalls encountered by its neighbor.
Understanding Turkey's economic trajectory provides crucial insights into potential pitfalls for Ukraine. While Turkey's growth has been notable, it has also been marred by significant inflation and corruption issues. For a deeper analysis of how Erdogan's policies have led to GDP growth amidst rising inflation, explore our coverage on Erdogan's economic strategies.