Attack on the Permnefteorgsintez Refinery
On May 7, 2024, drones struck the Permnefteorgsintez oil refinery, operated by Lukoil, causing a complete halt in crude processing and fuel production. The attack sparked a fire that damaged key processing units. This facility, which handles over 12 million tons of oil annually, lost critical capacity after emergency shutdowns of its primary distillation units—AVT-5, AVT-1, and AVT-2—which together account for roughly half of the plant's output. Notably, the AVT-4 unit had already been offline since April 30 due to a previous drone-induced fire.
Impact on Russia's Oil Processing Capacity
This incident marks the seventh drone strike since early spring to force a Russian refinery offline. Just two days earlier, on May 5, the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery in the Leningrad region—the country's second-largest—completely stopped processing oil. Other refineries that have also halted operations include:
- Syzran
- Novokuybyshevsk
- Tuapse
- Nizhny Novgorod
- Saratov
As a result, Russia's crude processing volumes have dropped to 4.69 million barrels per day—the lowest level since 2009. For context, that is a dramatic fall in a country that ranks among the world's top oil producers.
Russia's Ministry of Economy projects that oil extraction will remain stable in 2026, with gradual increases over the following two years. Under the baseline forecast, this year's combined output of crude and condensate is expected to reach around 511 million tons, equivalent to roughly 10.26 million barrels per day. By 2027, production is anticipated to rise to 516 million tons, and over the next two years, it should climb to 525 million tons.
The refinery shutdowns stem not only from drone attacks but also from broader instability in the energy sector. The resulting fuel production losses are severe enough to strain domestic markets and threaten the country's energy security, as processing rates have hit record lows. At the same time, the Ministry of Economy's forecasts for steady crude output suggest that Russian authorities aim to maintain production levels despite external pressures.
The recent drone strikes have not only led to significant refinery shutdowns but have also pushed Russia's fuel production to its lowest levels in nearly two decades. As highlighted in a recent report, the cascading effects of these attacks on the energy sector are profound, suggesting a troubling trend for the country's oil output. For a deeper understanding of how these developments are reshaping the fuel landscape in Russia, you can read more about the impact of the drone strikes on fuel production.