Moscow Refinery’s recovery timeline after drone attacks
Ukraine’s drone strikes on June 16 and 18 have disabled the Moscow Refinery, operated by Gazprom Neft, for at least half a year. Full restoration of the facility might not be completed until 2027. The attacks damaged crude oil distillation units responsible for supplying over a third of the fuel used in Moscow.
With an annual capacity of 14 million tons, the refinery previously produced roughly 2.9 million tons of gasoline and 3.2 million tons of diesel fuel each year. Following the strikes, Russia’s overall gasoline output plummeted by 25%, dropping to about 85,000 tons per day, while summer demand stands at around 110,000 tons daily. This has created a domestic shortfall of roughly 20%. Official fuel purchase limits are now in effect across 20 Russian regions, and unofficial restrictions have spread to more than 60 areas.
Russian government response and market fallout
In response, the Russian government has lowered gasoline quality requirements to the Euro-3 standard and is preparing to import fuel from India. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has also announced plans to consider banning diesel exports. Authorities are exploring fuel purchases for occupied Crimea, where gasoline sales to the public have been suspended.
Repair work at the Moscow Refinery is expected to take at least six months, according to an agency source. In a worst-case scenario, rebuilding the plant could cost around $1 billion and take up to a full year.
This situation highlights the vulnerability of Russia’s energy infrastructure amid ongoing military conflict and potential strikes. The drop in fuel production and resulting domestic shortage could severely impact the country’s economy, complicating fuel supplies not only for consumers but also for industry. While adopting lower quality standards and importing from abroad may offer temporary relief, they do not address long-term supply stability. Restoring the refinery will be a critical step toward normalizing operations in Russia’s energy sector.
The impact of the recent drone strikes extends beyond the Moscow Refinery, as the fuel crisis now affects a significant number of regions. Over 53 Russian regions and occupied territories are experiencing fuel shortages, highlighting the widespread repercussions of the damaged energy infrastructure. This situation raises concerns about the stability of fuel supplies across the country and the potential for escalating economic challenges.