Turkmen Gas Exports via Iran and Azerbaijan
Analyst Igor Tyshkevich has detailed a project to export Turkmen gas to the European Union through Iran and Azerbaijan, with a major expansion planned for 2026. Attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure could derail this plan, depriving Europe of a vital alternative gas source and impacting the potential use of Ukraine's Gas Transmission System (GTS). This comes as Europe actively seeks to diversify its energy supplies away from Russia.
According to the information, the formal buyer of the gas is the Azerbaijani operator Socar. A portion of the gas is transported via a swap scheme into the Turkish gas transmission system and from there sold to EU countries. The project has been operational for two years, with annual volumes of 2-3 billion cubic meters, but plans were in place to significantly increase these volumes to 15 billion cubic meters by 2026.
Project Significance for Ukraine and Associated Risks
Tyshkevich highlighted the project's importance for Ukraine:
"The reason this is important for us—I want to recall the negotiations where they discussed the Ukrainian GTS and supplying not Russian, but Azerbaijani gas through it." — Igor Tyshkevich
Discussions had taken place regarding a deal to supply Azerbaijani gas via the Ukrainian GTS, creating a possibility for alternative supplies to flow through Ukraine's network.
Simultaneously, the analyst draws attention to the risks associated with strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure:
"In this case, if strikes target the energy sector and so on, this project also essentially falls apart." — Igor Tyshkevich
This could negatively affect the European market, as another alternative gas source alongside Russian supplies would disappear, potentially tightening the market and influencing prices.
The development of the Turkmen gas export project is a significant step for European energy security as it seeks to reduce dependence on Russian resources. Given the persistent threats to Iran's infrastructure, the successful realization of this project is now in doubt. This uncertainty could lead to higher gas prices in Europe and impact the energy strategies of gas-importing nations. While Ukraine's GTS could have played a key role in this supply chain, security risks may now hinder its involvement.