Change in the geography of war
British historian Niall Ferguson, in a conversation with economist Larry Kotlikoff, noted the shift in the geography of war, pointing out that Ukrainian strikes are extending beyond Crimea and targeting deep into Russia — on Moscow, St. Petersburg, and oil infrastructure facilities. According to Ferguson,
“Ukrainians are hitting not only Crimea but also deep into Russia itself — on Moscow, St. Petersburg, and even further east, on key Russian oil infrastructure objects.”
Consequences of drone strikes
Drone strikes on Russian oil refineries (ORFs) have had serious consequences. In the summer of 2026, fuel shortages in Russia exceeded 90 percent in most regions. The gasoline market in the country dropped by approximately 20 percent from the seasonal norm. In particular, the Moscow ORF in Kapotnya lost both primary processing units and halted production after two attacks in June. Drones also struck the NORSI in Nizhny Novgorod and the Omsk refinery, the largest in Russia, which dealt a significant blow to the oil infrastructure.
Since April, Russia has had a ban on gasoline exports, and in June, a ban on aviation fuel exports was added. On July 10, Russian authorities officially recognized the fuel shortage and long lines at gas stations. Analyst Sergey Vakulenko describes the situation as
“a race between Ukrainian drones and Russian repairmen,”pointing out that the 'balance is shifting in favor of Kyiv.'
Ferguson also noted that the Russian army is losing tens of thousands of people monthly on the front line. In his opinion, nuclear escalation does not yield results on the front and may turn President Putin into an outcast for the world. He emphasized:
“The question arises, how much longer can Putin sustain this? So I cheer for Ukraine. I want Ukrainians to force Putin to accept some agreement through military pressure, and the day this happens will be significant.”
The situation on the front and in Russia's economy demonstrates serious consequences for the country due to Ukrainian military actions. The decrease in fuel production and the rising shortage indicate the vulnerability of the Russian economy, which may affect the morale of the army and the overall stability of the regime. Ferguson's remarks about the likelihood of an agreement between Ukraine and Russia highlight the need for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict in light of changing military situations. Attention to Ukraine's strategic strikes deep into Russia may indicate a new phase of the war, where the geographical boundaries of hostilities are significantly expanding.
As the conflict escalates, the recent wave of drone attacks has significantly impacted Russian logistics and military capabilities. For a closer look at how Ukraine has strategically targeted key supply hubs in Moscow, check out this detailed report on the major offensive involving 400 drones, which reveals the ongoing shift in warfare dynamics. Explore the full story here.