Political Shifts in Hungary
A potential election victory for Péter Magyar in Hungary could trigger significant shifts in the nation's foreign and defense policy. The political newcomer, leading the reformist Tisza party, has pledged to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. This would mark a major step for a NATO ally that is currently the only one in the alliance to have cut its real-term defense budget by 6% between 2024 and 2025. However, realizing these ambitions may prove difficult given Hungary's budget deficit, which stands at 4.7% of GDP.
The Tisza Party's Agenda
The Tisza party has laid out an ambitious reform program, which includes:
- Investing in the Hungarian military;
- Auditing defense industry contracts for corruption;
- Implementing reforms to root out Russian influence in state institutions;
- Accelerating investment in dual-use technologies;
- Reviewing the privatization of the defense sector;
- Conducting comprehensive audits of the IT systems at the foreign ministry and the defense procurement agency.
In particular, Katalin Cseh emphasized that
“a new government would bring about a radical break in Budapest’s defense policy.”
Beyond defense, the Tisza party aims to unblock the path for Ukraine's long-term EU accession, despite Hungary currently vetoing a €90 billion EU loan package for Kyiv. Magyar has stated his desire to rebuild constructive relations with the EU. One EU diplomat suggested that
“moving forward on the loan issue would be a quick way to do that.”However, as András Rácz notes, “it will be a long and hard battle for a new Hungarian government,” and in the short term, “it is out of the question.”
It is important to note that after years of Fidesz-led propaganda, Ukraine is not a popular topic among Hungarian voters. Consequently, as the first EU diplomat stated, Magyar “would likely have to tread very carefully.” Viktor Orbán's 16-year tenure, which began with his return to power in 2010, has left a profound and lasting impact on Hungary's political landscape. Given this legacy, implementing new initiatives will likely require considerable time and effort from any incoming administration.
A victory for Péter Magyar could represent a pivotal moment for Hungarian politics, particularly regarding increased defense spending and a shift in foreign policy toward Ukraine. The reforms proposed by the Tisza party have the potential to significantly alter Hungary's relationships with the EU and NATO, as well as its domestic policy. Nevertheless, a challenging economic situation and the weight of political inheritance pose serious obstacles to fulfilling these plans.
As Hungary navigates the potential political shift under Péter Magyar's leadership, understanding his nuanced position on foreign policy becomes crucial. For a deeper insight into why Magyar has been reluctant to support Ukraine amidst these changes, explore our analysis of his stance on Ukraine and its implications for Hungary's role in the region.