Ukraine's Strategic Shift
Military historian Phillips O'Brien from the University of St Andrews told David Frum on The Atlantic that Ukraine has seized the strategic initiative in its war with Russia. A massive drone strike on Moscow last weekend, which hit key targets including an oil refinery and a facility producing parts for Russia's military industry, supports this view. O'Brien stressed that this event reflects a major overhaul of Ukraine's armed forces, which have been restructured two or three times since 2022.
The Role of Drones and Training
O'Brien noted that despite Moscow's three rings of air defense systems, Ukraine proved the Russian capital is not safe. 'Moscow has more air defenses than you can imagine. Putin desperately tried to protect the capital. But this weekend, the Ukrainians showed Moscow is not secure,' the historian said.
He highlighted that drones are crucial for Ukraine's military, as the country deploys millions of unmanned aerial vehicles while having almost no armored vehicles.
O'Brien pointed to the importance of staff exercises Ukraine conducted with the Swedish army, noting that Ukrainians always win these drills. 'NATO armies simply cannot fight in the combat environment Ukraine is used to,' he stated. He also emphasized that 'a good drone operator is worth their weight in gold,' while the Russian army suffers heavy infantry losses.
In the broader context of the war, O'Brien suggested that China might be the real winner of the conflict, saying 'from an immediate benefit standpoint, what Trump did could not have been better for Putin.' He also noted that Russia's oil revenues have more than doubled despite its military setbacks.
O'Brien concluded that Ukraine will continue its war, which he described as 'a long strategic war targeting Russian military production.' He added that Russians cannot move because 'once you move, you are seen; once you are seen, you are killed.' This underscores the serious challenges facing the Russian army in modern warfare.
O'Brien's remarks highlight the importance of adaptation and innovation in Ukrainian military tactics, particularly the use of drones, which has become a new trend in modern conflicts. The attack on Moscow demonstrates how Ukraine can strike strategic enemy targets, even against a robust air defense system. This development could shift the war's dynamics and underscores the need for continued international support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.
As Ukraine continues to redefine its military strategy, understanding the long-term implications of these changes is crucial. For a deeper insight into how Ukraine's approach to warfare may evolve by 2026, and the historical context behind this transformation, read more about the significant shifts in Ukraine's military tactics.