Key Findings from RAND Experts on the War in Ukraine
Ukraine has a viable path to victory against Russia by methodically wearing down its opponent, according to analysts from the American research organization RAND. In a column published by The Hill, experts Gian Gentile and Andrew Radin point to Russia's deteriorating war economy and Ukraine's growing ability to strike deep inside Russian territory with drones. The core of Ukraine's strategy involves killing Russian soldiers at a higher rate—more enemy troops eliminated in less time—which the analysts believe could ultimately break Moscow's will to continue the war.
Current Battlefield Conditions
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, and the situation on the ground has shifted considerably since then. Estimates indicate that Russian forces are losing over 300 soldiers per day, with Ukrainian troops killing at least 50,000 Russian personnel each month. A key metric from former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is the ratio of 200 Russian casualties for every square kilometer of territory captured. Although Russia's population is roughly three times larger than Ukraine's, RAND analysts assert that this attrition-based approach is already starting to show tangible results.
The column also highlights the ePoints system, which incentivizes Ukrainian units to submit video confirmation of successful strikes in exchange for points. This mechanism has helped boost combat effectiveness. Recent attacks on targets inside Russia—including a strike near Saint Petersburg—demonstrate that Ukraine's strategy is also working deep within Russian territory, particularly against oil and gas infrastructure.
Recent reports and analysis suggest the momentum is shifting in Ukraine's favor. Russia's war economy is sinking.
Gian Gentile and Andrew Radin
According to the analysts, whether the Russian army faces the same fate depends on three critical factors:
- whether Ukraine can sustain its attrition strategy;
- whether it can escalate long-range strikes on Russian soil;
- whether it can maintain support from partner nations.
History shows that most wars have been won through attrition. In 2003, the United States defeated the Iraqi army in the field but then spent eight years bogged down by an insurgency. During the American Civil War, General Ulysses Grant used a strategy of grinding down the Confederate army until its surrender in April 1865—a lesson that remains relevant for modern conflicts.
The front lines between Ukraine and Russia remain tense, with both sides adjusting their tactics. The RAND analysis underscores that Ukraine is focusing on exhausting the enemy's resources, a shift that could significantly alter the long-term balance of power. Key questions remain about continued international support and the effectiveness of Ukrainian military operations, both of which will shape the conflict's future trajectory.
As Ukraine continues to implement its attrition strategy, recent developments highlight its evolving military capabilities. A significant example of this is the recent offensive where Ukraine targeted a major logistics hub in Moscow using 400 drones. This demonstrates not only Ukraine's growing operational reach but also its ability to disrupt Russian supply lines effectively. For more details on this bold strike, read about how Ukraine executed a major drone offensive against Moscow.