Border Crossings Show a Positive Shift for Ukraine
In a notable development, the head of the State Migration Service, Nataliia Naumenko, has reported that Ukraine's border crossing balance has turned positive for the first time since the full-scale war started. Throughout 2025, the net flow was negative: 14.77 million entries compared to 16.13 million exits, meaning departures exceeded arrivals by 1.36 million. However, between January and April 2026, this trend reversed, with 4.169 million departures and 4.186 million entries recorded. This resulted in a net positive balance of 17,000 crossings during that period.
What It Will Take for Ukrainians to Return
Naumenko cautioned that drawing firm conclusions about a broader repatriation of Ukrainians will require data from the first half and the entirety of 2026. She emphasized that the statistics count total border crossings, not individual people. The conditions necessary for Ukrainians to come back include:
- an end to the war,
- security guarantees,
- and a stable economic foundation.
According to Naumenko, several factors contributed to this positive dynamic: a more stable energy situation, the gradual depletion of resources abroad for some citizens, and return programs initiated by European Union countries. Still, she stressed that expecting a mass return while active hostilities continue is unrealistic. A meaningful shift in this trend is unlikely to occur before the post-war period.
In short, the situation at Ukraine's border is showing early signs of improvement, but more data will be needed to get a clear picture of the migration landscape.
Nataliia Naumenko
This positive shift in border crossings may indicate a revival of socio-economic activity within the country, but real changes in migration patterns will likely only happen once the security situation stabilizes.
As the situation at the borders evolves, it is crucial to stay informed about the broader implications of migration trends in Ukraine. Recently, a surge of misinformation regarding migrants has emerged, complicating the public's understanding of the issue. To explore how this wave of disinformation is affecting perceptions and policies, read more about the impact of false narratives on migration.