Ukraine needs to accelerate gas accumulation and attract international financing before the start of the 2026–2027 heating season. The scale of imports will depend on the intensity of Russian attacks on production, and the worst-case scenario threatens local heating problems. This was stated by Yaroslav Zheleznyak on the YouTube channel "Iron MP".
How much gas does Ukraine need before the 2026–2027 heating season
According to the data provided by Zheleznyak, the baseline target for the beginning of winter is about 14.6 billion cubic meters of gas. At the end of May, there were approximately 11 billion cubic meters in storage, but 4.7 billion of them are buffer gas, which technically cannot be withdrawn.
One of the sources remains domestic production, but its stability depends on the security of infrastructure. According to the deputy, in 2026, gas facilities suffered more than 100 attacks, and after last year’s strikes, Ukraine temporarily lost up to 42% of production.
Relying on reserves from foreign traders is also difficult. Before the winter of 2023–2024, non-residents were holding about 2.5 billion cubic meters in Ukraine, but due to war risks, this amount has almost disappeared.
Therefore, the key source is gas imports. During the last season, Ukraine imported over 4.6 billion cubic meters of gas. In 2026, international partners continued to finance purchases: the EBRD combined a loan of up to 500 million euros with a Norwegian grant of 85 million euros. This is confirmed by bank data.
What three scenarios for the winter did Zheleznyak mention
Under the baseline scenario, Russia will not inflict critical damage to gas production facilities in summer and autumn. This will allow maintaining domestic production, inject necessary volumes, and reduce import costs.
The second scenario involves massive strikes and constant emergency repairs. In this case, the need for imported gas may increase from 2.5 to 4 billion cubic meters, and in some cities, there is a risk of local heating disruptions.
The worst option, according to Zheleznyak, is a simultaneous reduction in domestic production and problems with purchases in Europe. In cold weather or damage to compressor stations, this could lead to a drop in pressure in the system and cold radiators.
According to the deputy's assessment, the state may need at least 4 billion euros for gas imports. The ability to attract these funds will depend on the transparency of the new leadership of "Naftogaz", the trust of creditors, and the speed of restoring damaged facilities.
Previously, Zheleznyak announced a crackdown on corruption due to EU requirements and 90 billion euros.