In July, Ukraine recorded deflation for the first time in two years — consumer prices decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous month. This summer trend is traditionally associated with the arrival of the new harvest on the market, but it was not observed last year. This was reported by the State Statistics Service.
Vegetables had the greatest impact on the price drop, having decreased by 23.9% over the month. According to State Statistics calculations, this factor alone reduced the overall inflation rate by 0.7%. Additionally, sugar became cheaper by 2.8%. Other products mainly became more expensive, but the growth did not exceed 2%, so they did not have a significant impact on inflation.
Inflation forecasts in Ukraine
In annual terms, inflation in July 2025 slowed to 14.1% from 14.3% in June. The last time price decreases in the country were recorded was in August 2023, when they fell by 1.4%.
At the same time, the National Bank revised its inflation forecast for the current year, raising expectations to 9.7% from the previous 8.7%. According to the regulator's estimates, inflation will decrease to 6.6% in 2026, and a return to the target of 5% is expected only in 2027.
The state forecast suggests a price increase of 9.5% in 2025 (December to December). For the period from 2026 to 2028, two scenarios are being considered: in the optimistic scenario, with improved security from 2026, inflation will decrease to 8.6% in 2026, 5.9% in 2027, and 5.3% in 2028. In the pessimistic scenario, which assumes the continuation of the war, the rate of price growth will remain high — 9.9%, 9.4%, and 7.5% respectively.
Let us also remind you that food prices in Ukraine have already caught up with European prices.
Ukraine experienced deflation in July when consumer prices decreased. The devaluation of vegetables and sugar had the greatest influence on this. The inflation forecast was raised due to a revision by the National Bank, but the government hopes for an improvement in the situation in the future.