In 2026, the minimum wage in Ukraine will be 8647 hryvnias. Although this increase may seem positive at first glance, experts argue that it may only exacerbate the problem of poverty, as the amount does not meet the actual needs of the population.
Actual Subsistence Minimum and Forecast for the Future
Based on data from June 2025, the actual subsistence minimum for an adult individual was 11464 hryvnias and 27 копійок, and after taxation - 8421 hryvnias and 94 копійки. Thus, all those with an income lower than these amounts are effectively below the poverty line.
Forecast for 2026-2028 and Possible Scenarios
The economic and social standards development forecast for 2026-2028 is outlined in the government decree of August 6, №946. The document envisages two possible scenarios: an optimistic one, where the security situation in the country improves, and a pessimistic one that considers the continuation of Russia's full-scale aggression.
According to the forecast, with favorable developments, the average nominal salary will rise to 30240 hryvnias in 2026, 35268 hryvnias in 2027, and 39758 hryvnias in 2028. In case of continued conflict with Russia, these figures will be significantly lower.
Forecast for the Labor Market and Citizens' Incomes
The forecast also includes expectations for an increase in the number of employed individuals aged 15 to 70. According to experts, while the number of employed may increase from 13 million to 13.2 million, the real incomes of Ukrainians will still lag behind the subsistence minimum.
Comparison of Minimum Salaries in Ukraine and the EU
Overall, the news article provides an insight into the minimum wage increase in Ukraine for 2026, along with forecasts and expert opinions on how it may impact poverty levels in the country. It also outlines the government's projections for economic and social standards over the next few years, highlighting potential scenarios based on the political and security situation. Furthermore, the article discusses predictions regarding the labor market and citizens' incomes, emphasizing the ongoing challenges of income levels lagging behind the minimum subsistence level.