Four Stages of Russia’s War Against Ukraine
In an op-ed for The Spectator, political science professor Charles Lipson breaks down the conflict between Russia and Ukraine into four distinct stages. He argues that the current, fourth phase is the most critical, with Kyiv now holding the upper hand thanks to its dominance in drone warfare. Lipson emphasizes that modern combat increasingly hinges on technology—particularly unmanned aerial vehicles, which are reshaping the balance of power on the battlefield.
Key Characteristics of Each War Stage
Lipson provides a detailed account of the war’s progression:
- The first stage began in 2014, when Russia seized Crimea and parts of the Donbas.
- The second stage kicked off with the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
- The third stage was marked by a prolonged war of attrition that lasted until recently.
- The fourth stage, according to Lipson, is defined by drone control on the battlefield.
Data shows that Russia is losing at least 30,000 troops each month—either killed or severely wounded—and can only replace about 70 percent of those losses. Total Russian casualties since the invasion began are estimated at over one million people. Lipson also notes that in 2026 alone, more than a hundred systems were destroyed, including air defense radars and counter-battery units. Ukraine, in his view, holds a decisive advantage in drone numbers, software capabilities, and satellite intelligence. He stresses that success in this war depends not just on troop counts, but on technological superiority.
The situation inside Russia is also raising alarms. Putin has rarely been seen in Moscow lately, which may indicate a limited grip on the unfolding events. Still, he has signaled a willingness to meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person. For the first time, pro-war Russian bloggers are openly stating that the war cannot be won, while Ukrainians remain confident they can prevail in a war of attrition.
'In the war in Ukraine, the queen of the battlefield has been dethroned by a humble drone.'
Charles Lipson
Lipson’s analysis underscores how technological innovation is reshaping modern warfare, especially in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Drones, now a central element on the front lines, are overturning traditional military doctrines and paving the way for new strategies and tactics. Meanwhile, growing discontent and doubts about victory within Russia signal a shifting perception of the conflict both at home and abroad.
As the conflict evolves, understanding the historical context becomes essential. A recent analysis highlights how Ukraine has significantly altered the dynamics of the war by 2026, showcasing the impact of strategic decisions and technological advancements. For a deeper insight into these transformative changes, explore how Ukraine reshaped the course of the conflict in the coming years.