Assessing the Prospects for Ending a US-Iran War
In an interview with political analyst Yuriy Romanenko, expert Tigran Avakyan offered a critical assessment of the idea that a US war with Iran could be ended quickly through airstrikes alone. He stressed that achieving victory would require a full-scale ground invasion, demanding massive troop deployments and leading to unacceptable casualties for American society.
Avakyan pointed out that Iran's population exceeds 90 million people. He estimated that a successful ground operation in the Kurdistan region alone would need roughly 250,000 to 300,000 US soldiers. To control the entire country, he argued, would require a force of over 1.5 million troops.
“I believe the probability that this war will still be going on in a month is quite high. The issue is that Trump now understands he needs to, and that winning this war right now is impossible without a ground operation,” the analyst emphasized.
Furthermore, Avakyan noted that controlling a specific district within Iran might still require up to 50,000 soldiers. He highlighted that “neither Israel nor the United States, even combined, has an army of that size.” In his analysis, he added that military strategies would likely focus on seizing key assets, stating, “obviously, they will take an island, a distribution center in the Strait of Hormuz.”
The Expert's Conclusion
Therefore, the expert concludes that without committing vast resources and effort, the United States cannot achieve a rapid resolution to a conflict with Iran. A lack of proper preparation could lead to severe consequences for both American society and its military.
This scenario underscores the immense difficulty of military operations in densely populated regions with high potential for resistance. Any military intervention in Iran would have profound repercussions, not just for the US but for the stability of the entire Middle East. Given the potential for heavy losses and domestic political backlash in America, the debate over viable strategy and necessary resources is becoming increasingly urgent. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint, makes any conflict in this region a matter of worldwide concern.
As tensions escalate, understanding the potential consequences of military action is crucial. A recent analysis highlights the complexities involved in any U.S. strikes against Iran, suggesting that the risks of escalation cannot be overlooked. For a deeper look into the various scenarios and risks associated with potential U.S. actions, you can explore the details in the assessment of escalation risks and scenarios.