Assessing the State of the Russia-Ukraine War
In a special February 18th episode of the Foreign Affairs podcast, military analyst Michael Kofman provided an assessment of the Russia-Ukraine war, four years after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. Kofman argued that the year 2025 has not been a successful one for the Russian military and analyzed tactical shifts on the battlefield, including the evolving role of drones.
February 24, 2025, will mark four years of conflict. According to Kofman, the frontline now stretches over a thousand kilometers, with Ukraine still controlling roughly 20% of the territory in the Donetsk region. The analyst stressed that the Russian army has failed to achieve even its minimal objective of seizing the entire Donetsk oblast. He noted that Russia's military leadership has attempted to embellish its battlefield reports, claiming successes that have not materialized.
The Impact of Diplomacy and Future Prospects
Kofman also discussed the influence of the Trump administration's diplomacy on the conflict, stating that the U.S. is acting as a catalyst to bring Ukrainian and European positions closer together, while Moscow's stance remains isolated. He emphasized that Vladimir Putin wanted this war from the outset, dating back to his ultimatums during the 2021 negotiations. Kofman stated that Putin still prefers the continuation of the war over any other option currently on the negotiating table.
Kofman concluded that 2025 has not been a successful year for the Russian army and noted that the battlefield situation remains challenging for Moscow. — Michael Kofman
Michael Kofman's comments underscore the protracted and complex nature of the conflict, which, despite Russia's numerous attempts to achieve its strategic goals, remains a war of attrition. The ongoing support for Ukraine from the United States and its European allies continues to be a critical factor in regional stability and the international response to the war. Prospects for peace remain uncertain as Moscow maintains a rigid position and diplomatic initiatives are hampered by a fundamental lack of trust between the parties.