Franz-Stefan Gady Takes Part in a War Game
In a 2025 simulation hosted by the Helmut Schmidt University of the Bundeswehr, analyst Franz-Stefan Gady—affiliated with IISS and CNAS—played the role of Russia's Chief of General Staff. The exercise was set in the summer of 2026, under a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine, and involved a Russian strike force of roughly 12,000 troops. Gady’s performance demonstrated that Moscow could isolate the Baltic states without launching a large-scale land assault, relying instead on rapid decision-making, nuclear threats, and long-range weaponry capable of paralyzing Germany. This scenario highlights a growing security concern for NATO’s eastern flank, where speed and asymmetry could outweigh traditional military strength.
“My first trump card is speed. The assumption was that the Russian side simply makes decisions faster than the NATO alliance—partly due to what’s happening in U.S. domestic politics.” — Franz-Stefan Gady
He estimated that by the end of 2026, Russia could produce over 120,000 long-range drones of the Geran-2/Shahed-136 type, each carrying 40–50 kg of explosives. In Gady’s view, 'a couple hundred of these drones would be enough to overwhelm nearly all of Germany’s air defense system.'
War Scenarios and Threats Across Europe
The exercise also explored scenarios for a conflict over Taiwan, where sinking an invasion fleet is only the first phase. Gady stressed that attrition warfare is the core challenge, noting that 'the most likely outcome is that neither side wins.' Regarding Ukraine, he observed that Kyiv regained the initiative in 2026 due to advantages in drone warfare and medium-range strikes. 'The Ukrainian armed forces are no longer shrinking like they did in 2025,' Gady said, emphasizing their renewed activity.
Russian forces are attempting to close a pincer north of Sloviansk and advancing into Kostiantynivka, making this their main focus. According to Gady, the key question is what Russia can counter against Ukraine’s drone superiority—and he has no clear answer. His analysis points to dangerous assumptions that could arise in maneuver warfare. 'That is a dangerous assumption,' he remarked, commenting on NATO’s belief that superior air forces will always guarantee maneuverability.
Franz-Stefan Gady visited Ukraine in March 2026 and traveled through the Baltic region in June 2025, reflecting his active engagement in regional security studies. The combined GDP of the three Baltic states is roughly two-thirds that of Iran, underscoring the importance of economic stability in this area.
The scenarios examined in the war game and Gady’s conclusions highlight rising threats in Europe, particularly for the Baltic nations. His emphasis on decision-making speed and the use of advanced technologies signals that NATO must adapt its response strategies to meet modern challenges. This also underscores the importance of supporting Ukraine amid escalating conflict, as the activity of Ukrainian forces could be a key factor in countering Russian aggression.
As military strategies evolve, understanding the vulnerabilities of vast nations like Russia becomes crucial. In a related analysis, experts discuss how these dynamics can shift the balance of power in conflicts, highlighting the implications for regional stability. For further insights on this topic, explore how Russia's size may become a liability in modern warfare.