The State of Russia in 2025
In 2025, Russia suffered immense human losses in the war, with 480,000 military personnel killed or wounded. Despite this staggering sacrifice, the country managed to occupy only 0.7% of Ukrainian territory. By January 2026, Russia had seized an additional 0.04% of land, but its forces were sustaining over 1,000 casualties per day, marking the lowest rate of advance in nine months. This grinding war of attrition has proven extraordinarily costly for Moscow.
Military and Economic Strain
Over a 25-month period from January 2024 to January 2026, Russia captured an extra 21% of the Donetsk region at the cost of hundreds of thousands of soldiers. Even after these gains, the newly occupied territory is smaller than the area of Donetsk that remains under Ukrainian control.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha noted that 'the war is returning to where it started from—to Russia. And that is just.'
Russia's domestic economic situation is also deteriorating. Regional budget deficits have ballooned to $21 billion, a figure eight times larger than in 2023. Production in 12 of Russia's key industrial sectors continues to decline, while the number of shuttered businesses has risen by 15%. Approximately 10% of Russian enterprises are now on the verge of bankruptcy, highlighting the war's severe domestic toll.
In 2025, Ukraine conducted 719 attacks on military targets deep behind enemy lines, inflicting an estimated $15 billion in damage. Sybiha emphasized that 'the sooner Putin loses his illusions of a military victory, the sooner peace efforts will succeed.' These figures point to a continuing conflict that is applying increasing military and economic pressure on Russia from multiple fronts.
The situation on the battlefield and within the Russian economy indicates severe challenges for the Kremlin. Despite some territorial acquisitions, the high military casualties and worsening economic conditions suggest the conflict is not only protracted but may be evolving. For its part, Ukraine's active strikes deep into Russian-held territory demonstrate a resolve to continue fighting to regain its land. This dynamic is likely to significantly influence the future course of the war and international policy in the region.