The intensification of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports threatens to reduce exports, put pressure on the hryvnia, and lead to job losses. The temporary stabilization of food prices due to an oversupply of grain may later turn into a deficit, believes MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak.
Attacks on Ukraine's ports halt agricultural exports
According to official data, during July, Russia attacked Ukrainian ports 124 times, targeting civilian vessels near docks and ships in the maritime corridor. Zheleznyak claims that by the end of the month, traffic to the ports of Greater Odesa had virtually ceased, resulting in Ukraine losing up to 90% of its maritime exports.
The MP noted that in the 2026/2027 marketing year, Ukraine planned to export about 67 million tons of agricultural products. Due to issues with maritime logistics, a significant portion of the harvest may remain within the country.
He stated that in just one week, the purchasing prices for wheat in ports had fallen by approximately 15%, and for corn by 4%. Grain has to be sold below cost, which poses a risk of halting small farms and reducing acreage next year.
Railways, road routes, and Danube ports cannot fully replace the maritime corridor. Their throughput is limited by low water levels in the Danube, the condition of infrastructure, and delays at western borders.
Port blockade will pressure the hryvnia, prices, and employment
Zheleznyak stated that due to the deterioration of maritime exports, Ukraine could lose about $2.5 billion in foreign currency revenue in the second half of 2026. Reduced currency inflow intensifies pressure on the hryvnia's exchange rate and raises import costs, particularly fuel.
The stable prices of bread and other basic products, the deputy said, are a temporary effect. The oversupply of grain currently restrains price increases, but the losses for farmers may lead to reduced production, shortages, and a new spike in prices in 2027.
Problems are already spreading to the metallurgy sector, where products are difficult and expensive to store. As an example, Zheleznyak cited Ferrexpo, which reduced operations due to energy supply and logistics issues.
Among the necessary solutions, the deputy mentioned adjusting minimum export prices, accessible loans for producers, temporary easing of currency rules, and international guarantees for the safety of civilian shipping.
Earlier, Zheleznyak announced an offensive against corrupt officials due to EU demands and 90 billion euros.