Business Leaders Survey Points to Economic Growth in 2026

Business Activity Set to Rise in 2026

According to НБУ: A survey of 663 business leaders, conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicates that companies anticipate an increase in business activity for 2026. The Business Expectations Index (BEI) stood at 102.1%, reflecting a positive outlook among entrepreneurs. While this marks a slight decrease from the 103.5% recorded in Q3 2025, the overall trend remains optimistic. This forward-looking survey provides a key gauge of business sentiment in Ukraine's evolving economic landscape.

Inflation Forecasts and Credit Demand

In Q4 2025, the expected annual inflation rate was 11.1%, an improvement from the 11.4% forecast in the previous quarter. Expectations for the exchange rate also rose, with projections of 44.27 UAH per USD, compared to 44.11 UAH per USD in the prior survey. A significant 35.8% of enterprises plan to take out bank loans, up from 33.3% in Q3 2025. Among these, 80.9% prefer loans denominated in the national currency, the hryvnia.

Optimism is particularly strong among respondents from the energy and water supply sectors, processing industries, and construction. Enterprises with foreign investment also maintained expectations for growth in their output. Overall, this sectoral optimism points to positive forecasts in key economic areas, signaling business confidence in Ukraine's future.

Positive sentiment in the business community may indicate economic recovery and a potential improvement in Ukraine's investment climate.

The growing number of firms planning to seek credit could signal to banks an increased demand for financing, which may, in turn, stimulate economic development. Positive forecasts in key sectors highlight the potential for further business growth and expansion in the coming years.