Putin should expect a mafia boss's fate, a British historian predicts.

Elite frustration mounts in Russia

According to ХВИЛЯ: Speaking on the Hoover Institution's GoodFellows program, British historian Niall Ferguson said Russian President Vladimir Putin could be ousted as elite resentment builds. In Ferguson's view, the old bargain between Putin and the oligarchs has broken down: the cost-benefit calculation of keeping the regime in place now tilts in favor of the elites. Poland's OSW Centre for Eastern Studies backs this assessment, reporting growing dissatisfaction among Russia's political and business elite. The prediction adds to a wider Western debate over how long Putin's rule can last.

Economic troubles and their ripple effects

Russia's economic troubles are compounding the anxiety. The country's economy contracted in the first quarter of 2026, marking its first negative reading in three years. This spring, billionaires Kerimov and Deripaska were each forced to contribute roughly $1.3 billion to the state treasury. Meanwhile, since 2022 dozens of senior Russian corporate figures and officials have died in suspicious circumstances, among them former transport minister Starovoit, who died by suicide using a pistol that Putin had previously given him.

"The Russian elite is now truly losing out: the deal no longer works for oligarchs who got into bed with Putin, even at gunpoint. Moscow has many windows to fall from."

Niall Ferguson

Ferguson said Putin behaves like a classic mafia boss, and such bosses do not retire. In May, Western media reported on possible plans to remove Putin that are allegedly being discussed in his inner circle.

Mounting elite anger could signal that the situation inside Russia is growing more tense, especially against a backdrop of economic hardship. Negative growth numbers and the deaths of senior executives may point to internal conflicts within the regime. The situation merits close attention, as any shift in Russia's political landscape could have significant consequences for international relations and regional stability.