Before the year is out, Russia could mount an offensive in northern Ukraine, says Ukraine's military intelligence.

What Ukraine's intelligence says about a possible northern offensive

According to ХВИЛЯ: In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of the military intelligence service (GUR) within Ukraine's Defence Ministry, said that while Russia could conceivably attempt an attack on northern Ukraine before the end of this year, the necessary forces and conditions are not currently in place. He added that Ukrainian intelligence sees no signs of preparation for an offensive against Kyiv or Chernihiv regions. The warning comes as Russia continues to press its assaults along the front and escalate strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.

Skibitskyi also noted that Russia announced its partial mobilization in the second half of October 2022. By December of that year, some prepared Russian units had appeared on the front, while the main combat-capable forces became ready in January 2023. If Moscow decides to launch another wave of mobilization this year, a strike grouping could be built up closer to February of next year.

"If the aggressor runs a new mobilization wave this year, they could put together a powerful strike force by around February, early next year. And that does not rule out the Russian command staging such an operation in February, knowing Putin's fondness for symbolic dates." - Vadym Skibitskyi

Frontline situation and possible threats

For now, Russia is keeping up offensive operations on the front and increasing attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Moscow is not showing any readiness to stop fighting or sign a peace agreement before the year ends. Intelligence also does not detect the forces or preparations that would point to an imminent Russian offensive from the north. The question of such an offensive therefore remains open, but the current situation does not make it look unavoidable.

With fighting ongoing and no visible preparation for a northern attack, the situation can still shift quickly. Skibitskyi's remarks about possible mobilization and the formation of a strike force suggest that Ukrainian military intelligence is closely watching any changes in the aggressor's military plans. They also highlight the need for Ukraine to stay ready for possible future threats, especially around symbolic dates that Moscow might choose for military actions.

As the situation remains tense, understanding the broader implications of Russia's military strategy is crucial. Recent insights from Ukrainian intelligence reveal plans that could see hundreds of thousands drafted to bolster Russian forces. For a detailed look at these developments and their potential impact, visit the latest report on Putin's mobilization plans.