Iran Retains Missile and Drone Factories as US Holds Off Attacks Ahead of 2026 Midterms

Current Developments in and Around Iran

According to ХВИЛЯ: Despite months of airstrikes by the US and Israel, Iran has managed to preserve its missile and drone manufacturing facilities. US President Donald Trump has refrained from launching attacks on Iran until after the November 2026 midterm elections. Under growing military pressure, Tehran has intensified assaults on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, driving up oil prices and tanker rental rates in the area.

Intelligence reports confirm Iran possesses substantial stocks of ballistic missiles and anti-ship weapons, some supplied by Russia. Western intelligence agencies estimate that before the conflict, Iran had approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles. Even after eight months of US air raids, Iran remains capable of threatening American bases and allies. On September 30, 2026, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegset announced the degradation of Iran's military-industrial capacity. Nevertheless, experts note that while Iran’s most advanced weaponry might have diminished, Tehran has been steadily accumulating cruise missiles over several years and continues to conceal these stockpiles.

Rising Tensions and Regional Impact

Since the conflict began on February 28, 2026, Iran has deployed over 4,000 'Shahed' drones and at least 2,000 ballistic missiles. According to the British Navy, at least 10 vessels were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz last week. Tanker charter rates in the strait have surged to around $1.2 million per day, a sharp increase from under $50,000 before the war. Oil prices have remained above $100 per barrel, reflecting ongoing instability in the region.

The situation is further complicated by missile strikes from Houthi forces backed by Iran. On a Thursday evening in 2026, ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis hit two airports in Saudi Arabia, killing at least three people and injuring dozens more. Experts believe the conflict in the region is currently in a stalemate, with Iran’s economy suffering due to the US naval blockade restricting its oil exports.

Geographical features, such as Iran’s southern mountain ranges, provide natural protection against aerial attacks, enabling Tehran to maintain and expand its military infrastructure. Analyst Sidharth Kaushal commented,

“Iran likely retains significant stocks of anti-ship missiles. These weapons are relatively easy to produce, and Iran has taken over much of the manufacturing of older Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles.”

Overall, the situation remains volatile as military engagements continue and the economic fallout extends beyond the region, impacting global oil markets. The sharp rise in oil prices and tanker costs signals the conflict’s significant influence on worldwide economic dynamics. Moving forward, the international community faces the challenge of navigating between potential escalation and diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis.