Kremlin May Be Gearing Up for Major Strikes on Ukraine's Energy Grid, ISW Warns

Russia's War Strategy and the Risk of Escalation in Ukraine

According to ХВИЛЯ: According to Russia policy expert Mark Galeotti, President Vladimir Putin has no intention of either sharply escalating the war in Ukraine or bringing it to a close. Instead, his approach centers on grinding down the front lines and launching a fresh wave of strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure over the winter months. Galeotti shared this assessment in an interview with Kate Gerbo, host of Frontline, published on the Khvylya news site. The caution comes as Ukraine braces for yet another season of possible power cuts brought on by enemy bombardment.

Galeotti describes Putin's instinct as favoring a slow, wearing offensive. The Russian leader, he suggests, may believe that if he can simply hold on a while longer, Ukraine's own resilience will start to crumble. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has likewise concluded that Moscow is already assembling the pieces for a wide-ranging attack campaign aimed at Kyiv's power systems. ISW analysts do not rule out that this winter's offensive could open earlier than expected, potentially as soon as August.

Targeting Ukraine's Energy Network: Aims and Consequences

In ISW's view, the purpose of these strikes would be to interfere with repair work at damaged facilities and to capitalize on Ukraine's dwindling supply of anti-missile interceptors. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already described the situation as critical, noting that almost no electricity-generating plants in the country have gone untouched. He also said that deliveries of ballistic-missile interceptors have fallen to roughly a third of their level at the start of the year. During last winter's bombardment, Russian forces hit infrastructure that accounts for some 80% of Ukraine's entire energy system.

Galeotti sees signs of division in Ukraine's political tensions and personnel scandals, but stresses that such factors, on their own, do not provide Moscow with immediate military advantages.

The analyst also points out that while Russia knows how to amplify existing grievances, it cannot manufacture the collapse of a country out of nothing. Moscow's current approach appears to be one of trying to preserve control through attrition, using winter as a weapon to exhaust Kyiv's defenses. If this plan succeeds, Ukraine's energy infrastructure could become even more destabilized, bringing severe hardship for civilians and extra damage to the country's economy.

Given that any shift in the war's course could reshape regional security, observers will need to track these developments closely.

As the situation in Ukraine continues to evolve, the potential mobilization of additional Russian troops could significantly impact the conflict's dynamics. President Zelensky has raised concerns about Putin's plans to call up half a million Russians, indicating that the Kremlin's strategy may not only focus on energy infrastructure but also on reinforcing its military presence. This could lead to a more intense winter campaign, further complicating Ukraine's defense efforts.