Kaspárov: Ukraine's Victory Must Precede Any Russian Collapse, with China Eyeing the Far East

Garry Kasparov's Analysis of a Potential Russian Federation Breakup

According to Главком: In an interview with RBK-Ukraine, prominent Russian opposition figure Garry Kasparov shared his perspective on the possible disintegration of the Russian Federation, China's territorial claims on the Far East, and the critical importance of a Ukrainian victory for change within Russia. Kasparov asserted that China holds significant territorial grievances against Russia, stating

that "practically everything from Lake Baikal to Vladivostok was part of China until 1860."

He also noted that indigenous peoples of the Far East, such as the Udege and Yakuts, could be adversely affected by these claims.

Historical Background and Geopolitical Consequences

Kasparov pointed to the historical context, referencing the Treaty of Peking signed in 1860, which ceded the territories from Baikal to Vladivostok to the Russian Empire. He warned that in the event of Russia's collapse, independence for these regions is unlikely; instead,

"there will be China."

Kasparov stressed that for now, there is only one primary objective: Ukraine's victory, which he views as essential for achieving freedom in Russia. He emphasized that

• engaging in empty bravado and bluster is counterproductive.

His comments highlight the complex interplay of historical grievances and modern power politics in the region.

Thus, Kasparov called for a clear focus, arguing that without Ukraine's victory, meaningful change in Russia and its relations with neighboring countries is impossible.

Kasparov's statements underscore the significance of contemporary geopolitical shifts across the post-Soviet space. China's growing territorial ambitions could have serious implications for regional stability, particularly in the context of a potential Russian fragmentation. A Ukrainian victory represents not only a strategic success for the nation itself but also a pivotal factor that could unlock new possibilities for democratic transformation within Russia, potentially reshaping interstate dynamics across the region.