When will the war in Ukraine end: analyst Kovalenko named the harbingers

The end of the war in Ukraine will not be sudden, but will have clear signs that will indicate the approach of the finale. Military-political analyst of the group 'Information Resistance' Oleksandr Kovalenko named the key harbingers of changes at the front. This writes 'TSN'.

When will the war in Ukraine end: the main harbingers of a turning point

According to Kovalenko, the first signal will be the loss of the Russian troops' ability to advance. The next stage will be the weakening of the defense.

The analyst explains:

• Russian troops will be unable to effectively conduct offensive operations;

• the gradual destruction of defensive positions will begin;

• the rhetoric of the Russian leadership will change;

• vulnerability to Ukrainian counterattacks will increase.

'The first bell will be the inability of the Russian troops to hold the defense... As soon as their defense starts to crumble, their rhetoric will immediately change,' the expert noted.

He emphasizes that there is already exhaustion of Russian forces observed, which affects the pace of advancement. In 2026, according to his estimates, Ukrainian forces will liberate more territories than the enemy captures.

Harbingers of the war's end: why Russia is losing the initiative

Kovalenko believes that the Russian army is approaching a critical limit, where offensive actions will not yield results.

Among the factors:

• decreased effectiveness of the offense;

• inability to hold back counterattacks;

• local breakthroughs of defenses;

• overall depletion of resources.

The expert emphasizes that the war has been ongoing for the fifth year already, so its end cannot be instantaneous.

Separately, he pointed out possible strikes on Russian territory. According to him, the key may be not just the fact of strikes, but their scale and targets.

It concerns, in particular:

• massive attacks using dozens of missiles;

• strikes on energy infrastructure;

• hitting positions of air defense systems;

• creating a shock effect for the population.

Kovalenko suggests that large-scale combined strikes could have a psychological and reputational effect on Russian society.

Thus, the key signals of the end of the war will be the exhaustion of Russian troops, loss of initiative, and the change in the nature of hostilities in favor of Ukraine.

It should be noted that Head of the President's Office Kyrylo Budanov gave an interview to the national telethon on February 28, 2026, in which he expressed his opinion on peace negotiations and assessed the threat of the Russian Federation's offensive on Kyiv. According to him, the USA did not set specific deadlines for the end of the war of Russia against Ukraine, which indicates the absence of a clear date for the end of the conflict.