Libanova warned about the risk of a new wave of male emigration after the war

After the war, Ukraine may face a new wave of emigration of men. Demographer Ella Libanova ties this risk to the difference between military and civilian incomes and circumstances affecting the return of Ukrainian refugees. This was reported by demographer Ella Libanova during the Kyiv International Economic Forum, as communicated by 'Novyny.LIVE.'

Emigration of Men After the War: What Libanova Fears

The possible scenario was discussed by the demographer during the Kyiv International Economic Forum. In her opinion, after returning from the front, soldiers may face a significant decrease in income.

Libanova believes that the civilian labor market will not be able to offer all comparable earnings with military payments. Under such circumstances, work abroad may become a more attractive alternative for some men.

'Moreover, honestly, I fear a second wave of migration, male migration,' Libanova noted.

At the same time, the financial factor will not be the only one. If a wife is already working outside Ukraine and the children have settled in another country, after the borders open, the family may decide to reunite there.

Among the circumstances that may influence the decision, the expert mentioned:

• the difference between military payments and civilian salaries;
• employment of the wife abroad;
• the already established household of the family;
• the desire to provide better future for children.

Economic reasons for leaving were also explained earlier by the Ministry of Economy. In particular, higher earnings abroad were associated with labor productivity, technologies, and opportunities for professional skill development.

Return of Ukrainians: How the Duration of the War Affects Family Decisions

According to Libanova's estimates, after the war ends, about a third of forced emigrants may return home. This is the expert's forecast, not a set number of future returns.

The longer people live abroad, the more circumstances tie them to their new place. Work, children's education, and established household may influence where the family decides to live in the future.

Concerns about male emigration also describe a potential risk. The presented speech lacks a quantitative forecast of how many men may leave after the war.

Earlier, Libanova already expressed that she is most concerned about migration processes after the martial law is canceled. In this context, she cited population estimates for mid-2026: 28.5 million people.